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Scores on the economic shocks in 2011

Monday, 05/12/2011, 08:06 GMT+7

Inflation is declining, macro-financial balance with the positive changes, the economy continued growth, safety and other pressing social issues of concern to solve, however, in 2011 Vietnam has recorded the single "shock" in many areas of economic ...

A blizzard is adjustable exchange rates and gasoline prices, oil, electricity ..

 "On every" first shock is adjusted to USD exchange rate (up 9.3% from 02/11/2011). Immediately following the shock that overwhelmed the fuel-oil prices (up from 17-24%) and electricity (up 15.2% from 01/03/2011).

Convergence focus in the short term price shocks "crisis" after a long time trying to compress previously trigger pulses of negative energy. Implications persistent high inflation rate of around 1% compared with the previous month during the third quarter of the year, making three times the official government to adjust the CPI from the plan to end in 2011 is 7.5% to 15 %, and strive to achieve only 18%, despite already significantly improved compared to the year of the credit limit increases (to about 12% compared with less than 20% plan) and budget deficit (only 4 , 8% higher than planned 4.9%).

Two h is the control strategy on the foreign exchange market, the gap extends domestic and international gold prices, gold Brand sudden SJC officially crowned Gold Country Brand

In 2011 also noted the new shocks, causing much controversy both on the field, as well as mass media and create embarrassment for the bank, as well as doubts about people trying to control foreign exchange market by the Resolution dated 23/2/2011 of the Government 11/NQ-CP, particularly the efforts to control behavior ceiling interest rates and credit limits, limiting object access to credit in foreign currency transactions, even confiscating foreign currency trading "out flow"; up administrative barriers "standardized" to reduce all the standard objects are allowed to perform duties exclusively State import, manufacture and sales of gold bars.

 

This also makes the domestic gold price differences with foreign countries jumped to 3-5 www.internationaltradecanada.com Trade Opportunities www.international / output (compared with up to 2 www.internationaltradecanada.com Trade Opportunities www.international / of 2010) and lasted for months puzzling, despite reservations Governor's announcement of the gold standard is the maximum difference of only 400,000 VND / of the world gold price.

The outcome of this chaos was shocked when closing down is a trademark of SJC Jewelry Company Saigon, businesses are 100% state-owned business and the profits under UBNDTPHCM, to ascend the throne officially became the National Golden Brand's sudden declaration by Governor during a question at the second National Assembly session held last thang11/2011 13, without any journey through a procedure established and approved the proposal of such a great ..!

Third outbreak of bad debts broken banking and credit black

Although the early data, but public opinion was becoming shocked to hear of the bad debt of commercial banks jumped up to end of 10/2011 76,000 billion, ie 3.5% to the total outstanding debt (as a foreign institution for that figure is 13.5%), of which 47% is bad debt.

In particular, public opinion more than shocked to hear of SOEs accounted for 60% and 70% of total outstanding loans of commercial banks.

 

Moreover, the breakdown for black credit boom in many regions throughout the country, especially in large urban areas in the last months in 2011, with the scale "framework" of a few hundred billion, has not only shocked in the life of hundreds of thousands of families related directly and indirectly, but also increased fears about the risk of creating a healthy and shock domino collapse of credit markets in the country ...

Fourthly great discounts on real estate market & stock

First time in 2011 shocked investors when the waves broke clear of the real estate and equity securities in the state long before Not that the price freeze and wait for warm and hot again as every year, which really is not a rebate from 30-40%, even 50% from peak prices, but still hard to find customers to the Apartment and house adjoining, which was abandoned mansion this year.

Shock rebate on the stock market still dismal, and when the stock price drops dramatically, but not to 900 e / share, while the price per ordinary laced whipped "remains at 60,000 / luot/45 minutes, but the vast majority of goods and services are simultaneously increase the rate of inflation ....

Sixth extraordinary surge of business losses, the Quarrel inconclusive about gains or losses of petroleum industry and wages hurt by electricity.

The public was shocked to hear that, in 2011 in the domestic situation appeared every 10 businesses registered establishment, there were nine former enterprise shall be dissolved, merged or stopped working because of losses and no tax money ...

Even up to 450/495 enterprises listed on stock exchanges reported a loss of focus; about 50% of small and medium enterprises, and more than half of villages across the country almost paralyzed by interest rate high and difficult to access bank loans.

War of the actual gains or losses of fuel and power industry did not have an end despite the more revealing reaction dynamics and information to create a new shock of many officials inside and outside the industry, especially in the calculation losses and comply with regulations related management.

In particular, the news shocked public opinion than the average salary of the power sector only 7.5 TRD / though this industry is the heavy hole (by not arbitrarily increase the price of electricity or by a multi-sectoral investment), higher than Food summit approved by the State payroll for any teacher or any leading scientists of Vietnam. This salary makes official the power sector "heartbreaking" and also cause more hurt for officials and employees to think of many other sectors of their salary ...!

Identify specific gaps and better handling of the consequences has been and will generate economic shocks of the above become one of the urgent demands for the prevention and better control the reproducibility of shocks in the future ...


Written : TS Nguyễn Minh Phong