Inflation - expression is the consumer price index (CPI) - the hottest issues in the past two years has been an important step to curb. CPI in April, though at lower angle (compared to last month next month, after 4 months, after 1 year) is the lowest compared with the same period of months or years earlier. CPI in years may continue to decline in recent months and "bottom" year on year CPI may fall in July or August.

Although not subjective when inflation could return later this year, early next year (as has happened often over and repeat the previous years) because there are other factors that cause pressure, but the 2012 is the whole goal to increase below 10%, maybe even only increased approximately 6.5%.

Current account balance can be improved on many fronts. The trade balance of goods - embodied in the trade deficit - in 4 months this year compared to last year turnover was reduced both in absolute terms (0.2 billion compared with 4.83 billion dollars), both in billions rate than exports (1.2% versus 17.7%). exports increased more than imports, especially the area of ​​foreign investment.

Estimates in Q1, the current account balance surplus of nearly $ 2 billion, the balance of financial capital and surplus, so the overall balance of payments surplus of $ 2 billion (in 2010 $ 3.1 billion deficit; 2011 USD 2.65 billion surplus, a deficit which you USD 126 million). Foreign currency reserves reached about nine weeks of imports, although still lower than the 12 weeks of imports according to international practice, but has been improved.

Notably, foreign reserves increased, while the exchange rate stability (2009, 2010 U.S. dollar rose by 10%, in 2011 only increased by 2.24%, 4 May 2012 decreased by 1.04% as the ability both year increased by only 2-3% by the policy of the State Bank).

Thus, the hot issue second deficit has been reduced temperature, with the joy of rising exports exceed imports, but also concern as imports, especially imports of the sector in water down quite deep, which has an important part due to the declining growth of production, business.

Production growth and business is still struggling. According to estimates by the General Statistics Office, industrial index higher in April, four months which has overall higher estimates in Q1 (4.3% versus 4%). However, it is still very low growth rate over the same period last year and the first ship as a whole growth of the economy.

Difficulties continue to take place at both ends. At the input, access to capital remains difficult, partly because of the interest rate commercial banks despite reduced but still high, partly due to not meeting the conditions of the loan business. Credit growth is a negative net you nearly 2% as an expression of declining growth.

Remarkably, the status of "water falling prices, slapping the water as fuel" which is still before but which now appears status "of the CPI falls" of goods and services have significant price advantage when CPI increases slow down, pay more difficult for businesses such as increased fuel prices twice at high speed or gives the message electricity prices may rise less than 10% following eloquent statement was impressed with confidence Minister of Finance Vuong Dinh Hue when he took office ...

The output and consumption is very difficult, very low growth, inventories continue to rise. Total retail sales of goods and consumer services, if excluding the price factor, increase low speed using only half the growth rate of the same period last year.

From the new year with dozens of domestic revenue situation of the state budget reduction over the same period last year - told the court.

The decline in growth is very clearly expressed tens percent of enterprises have ceased production, bankruptcy procedures, stop paying taxes ... and from dozens of new year's domestic state budget revenues State budget reduction over the same period last year.

The decline in economic growth, warning the three major issues closely related to each other:

- Economic growth will be difficult to achieve full year target under the resolution of Congress.

- If to achieve growth targets, they must continue to loosen monetary policy, fiscal policy, to stimulate investment and consumption, inflation will return later this year and early next year, will meet the vicious cycle as has happened before.

- Particularly inflation, particularly declining growth (stagnation) also causes the target to ensure social security difficult, but if just inflation, has stagnated, it is difficult double, difficulties multiply .